Why the 2008 season will be Mike Nolan's last with SF

The San Francisco 49ers look like a new team this year. The addition of offensive coordinator Mike Martz and versatile journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan at the quarterback position have produced quick results:

• After 3 games JT O’Sullivan has a QB rating of 104.6, which puts him in the top 5 overall in the NFL.
• JT’s 123.3 passer rating was the highest for a 49ers QB since Garcia posted a 130.3 back in 2003.
• Justin Smith has already matched his sack total from last season.
• The over 30 points in back-to-back games hasn’t happened since 2003.
• Frank Gore is ranked in the top 5 in overall rushing through the first three games this season.

So why do I believe this year will be Coach Mike Nolan's last with the Niners?

Consider that this season is Nolan's fourth. After an unsuccessful three years if this year were to also tank, he would almost certainly be fired. However, if this year is successful, credit will go to Martz, not Nolan. Martz can expect to receive a number of head coaching opportunities elsewhere in the league. After a successful season it would be boneheaded if owner John York didn't fight to keep him. The only way I foresee Martz remaining with San Francisco in these circumstances is if he is promoted to head coach.

Either way, I predict Nolan is gone after this year.